← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 59% | 66% | 1.65 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.29 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 18% | 14% | 5.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Sandro Wagner · FC Bayern München |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 37' | ⚽ | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 40' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · FC Bayern München |
| 42' | 🟨 | Niklas Süle · FC Bayern München |
| 56' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 63' | 🟨 | Franck Ribéry · FC Bayern München |
| 82' | 🟨 | Péter Gulácsi · RB Leipzig |
| 82' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 625.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.79 |
| elo | 1763.86 | 2051.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.33 | 3.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 40.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 68.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 2.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 2.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 23.47 | 28.06 |
| state index | 0.45 | 2.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |