← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 66% | 67% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.91 | value: +4% |
| Hannover win | 14% | 11% | 7.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
| 79' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 107.00 |
| 382.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1717.29 | 1524.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.23 | -28.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.83 | — |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |