← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 52% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.52 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 20% | 20% | 4.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 100.00 | 740.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1831.99 | 1703.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.91 | 1.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 28.12 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |