← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 58% | 59% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.18 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 19% | 17% | 5.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 374.00 | 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1760.05 | 1706.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.67 | -22.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.67 | 25.31 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |