← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 46% | 40% | 2.12 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 28% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.69 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 47' | 🟨 | Paul Verhaegh · Wolfsburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Daniel Didavi · Wolfsburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Robin Knoche · Wolfsburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 78' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Admir Mehmedi · Wolfsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lars Bender · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | William · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 28 | Fouls | 9 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days |
| 30.00 |
| 367.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1538.43 | 1631.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.78 | -28.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 22.60 |
| state index | -0.37 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |