← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Mon, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 68% | 63% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.02 | value: +28% |
| FC Augsburg win | 12% | 12% | 8.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 73' | ⚽ | Kevin Danso · FC Augsburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Shawn Parker · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Caiuby · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 87.00 | 635.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1855.78 | 1674.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.74 | -19.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 26.73 |
| state index | 1.20 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.96 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |