← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71% | 76% | 1.38 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.15 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 10% | 9% | 9.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Borussia Dortmund |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mario Götze · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 71.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1835.93 | 1590.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.89 | -25.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| league points | 34.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.32 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 25.00 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |