← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 37% | 34% | 2.64 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 35% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 64' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tony Jantschke · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 429.00 | 582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1608.79 | 1634.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.77 | -20.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 22.99 | 23.13 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |