← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 63% | 67% | 1.56 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.30 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 14% | 12% | 6.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Konrad Laimer · RB Leipzig |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 38' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · RB Leipzig |
| 39' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Abdou Diallo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 68' | 🟨 | Emil Berggreen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Suat Serdar · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 86' | ⚽ | Emil Berggreen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 526.00 | 222.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1774.72 | 1623.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.93 | -15.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| league points | 26.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.10 | 24.64 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |