← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gunter Perl, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 83% | 77% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 14% | 9.55 | value: +31% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 7% | 9% | 13.65 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Zlatko Junuzović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 11' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Borussia Dortmund |
| 32' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 42' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
| 46' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · SV Werder Bremen |
| 58' | 🟨 | Fin Bartels · SV Werder Bremen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · Borussia Dortmund |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nuri Şahin · Borussia Dortmund |
| 68' | ⚽ | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 87' | 🟨 | Shinji Kagawa · Borussia Dortmund |
| 88' | 🟨 | Philipp Bargfrede · SV Werder Bremen |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| coach days |
| 689.00 |
| 1449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1755.45 | 1586.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.06 | 5.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 61.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.61 | — |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |