← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 58% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.51 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 20% | 25% | 4.92 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 28' | 🟨 | Xabi Alonso · FC Bayern München |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 47' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 60' | ⚽ | Thiago Alcântara · FC Bayern München |
| 64' | 🟨 | Douglas Costa · FC Bayern München |
| 64' | 🟨 | Arturo Vidal · FC Bayern München |
| 65' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 72' | 🟨 | Thiago Alcântara · FC Bayern München |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jérôme Boateng · FC Bayern München |
| 84' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | David Alaba · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arjen Robben · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 316.00 | 316.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1762.20 | 2028.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.91 | 0.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 1.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.22 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | — |
| league points | 66.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 69.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 2.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 24.38 | 27.99 |
| state index | 1.33 | 1.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |