← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 47% | 48% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
| Hertha win | 26% | 25% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marvin Compper · RB Leipzig |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sebastian Langkamp · Hertha |
| 54' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 70' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · RB Leipzig |
| 74' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 78' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Hertha |
| 84' | 🟨 | Diego Demme · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Rani Khedira · Hertha |
| 89' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 825.00 | 309.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1671.37 | 1745.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.87 | 25.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| league points | 46.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 23.72 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |