← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gunter Perl, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 43% | 36% | 2.30 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 32% | 34% | 3.07 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.85 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 29' | 🟨 | Benjamin Stambouli · FC Schalke 04 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 43' | 🟨 | Coke · FC Schalke 04 |
| 46' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · FC Schalke 04 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | 🟨 | Max Meyer · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 326.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1736.16 | 1749.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.53 | 18.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| league points | 37.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 24.35 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |