← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 70% | 66% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.23 | value: +18% |
| SC Freiburg win | 11% | 12% | 9.02 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 36' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 51' | ⚽ | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 68' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Lukas Kübler · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Demme · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 288.00 | 1962.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1737.75 | 1670.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.55 | 0.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| league points | 58.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 25.56 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |