← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 69% | 52% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.18 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 12% | 33% | 8.45 | value: +179% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marco Fabián · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sokratis · Borussia Dortmund |
| 86' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 23 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 654.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1872.78 | 1639.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.11 | -10.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| league points | 50.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.53 | 26.10 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |