← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 72% | 74% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.34 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 9% | 7% | 10.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 42' | 🟨 | Oliver Burke · RB Leipzig |
| 57' | 🟨 | Sven Schipplock · Darmstadt |
| 62' | 🟨 | Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt |
| 67' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt |
| 72' | 🟥 | Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt |
| 79' | ⚽ | Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig |
| 80' | ⚽ | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 83' | 🟨 | Wilson Kamavuaka · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| coach days | 274.00 | 1582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1712.69 | 1515.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.24 | -13.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| league points | 49.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.36 | 28.39 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |