← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 51% | 46% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.73 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 23% | 27% | 4.32 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Stafylidis · FC Augsburg |
| 25' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 31' | 🟨 | Naby Keïta · RB Leipzig |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marvin Compper · RB Leipzig |
| 60' | ⚽ | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marwin Hitz · FC Augsburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 275.00 |
| 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1521.58 | 1638.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.30 | -4.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 27.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 2.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.06 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |