← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 54% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.94 | value: +13% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 21% | 20% | 4.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Nadiem Amiri · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 25' | 🟨 | Nadiem Amiri · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 35' | 🟨 | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 38' | ⚽ | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 60' | 🟥 | Sandro Wagner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 77' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marvin Compper · RB Leipzig |
| 88' | 🟨 | Ádám Szalai · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin Hübner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RB Leipzig | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Red Bull Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1747.67 | 1733.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.90 | 31.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 39.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.26 | 1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.51 | 24.99 |
| state index | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |