← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 71% | 71% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.26 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 11% | 10% | 9.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Thiago Alcântara · FC Bayern München |
| 25' | ⚽ | Xabi Alonso · FC Bayern München |
| 30' | 🟥 | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 56' | 🟨 | Arturo Vidal · FC Bayern München |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 173.00 | 173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1901.19 | 1634.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.24 | 35.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.41 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.79 | 23.28 |
| state index | 1.54 | 1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.58 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |