← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.77 | value: +3% |
| Ingolstadt win | 22% | 18% | 4.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Roger · Ingolstadt |
| 34' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 61' | 🟨 | Timo Werner · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathew Leckie · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathew Leckie · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mathew Leckie · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Ilsanker · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.85 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 28.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1441.07 | 1637.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.42 | 63.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.46 | 2.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.34 |
| state index | -0.66 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |