← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 59% | 54% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.47 | value: +25% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 19% | 18% | 5.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -3' | 🟨 | Ousmane Dembélé · Borussia Dortmund |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marcel Schmelzer · Borussia Dortmund |
| 28' | ⚽ | Artjoms Rudnevs · 1. FC Köln |
| 54' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 60' | 🟨 | Sokratis · Borussia Dortmund |
| 65' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 72' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟥 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 26 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1288.00 | 528.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 4.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1575.54 | 1760.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.60 | 7.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| league points | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.65 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.32 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |