← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 71% | 80% | 1.38 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.13 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 10% | 6% | 9.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 47' | ⚽ | Antonio Čolak · Darmstadt |
| 56' | ⚽ | Julian Brandt · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 69' | ⚽ | Charles Aránguiz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leon Guwara · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 858.00 | 1435.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1663.19 | 1473.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.11 | -10.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -1.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.44 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 59.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -2.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.11 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 22.82 | — |
| state index | 0.49 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -1.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |