← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 79% | 75% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.30 | value: +11% |
| AC Monza win | 7% | 10% | 14.75 | value: +47% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC +1.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| AC Monza +1.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 59% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 41% | 2.84 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Tomás Palacios · AC Monza |
| 72' | 🟨 | Isak Hien · Atalanta BC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Marco Brescianini · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Monza | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.82 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | U-Power Stadium |
| coach days | 92.00 | 3259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1536.78 | 1923.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.17 | -15.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| league points | 15.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.88 | 6.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.53 |
| solidity v1 | -0.72 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 28.86 |
| state index | -1.25 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.37 |