← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 75% | 76% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.13 | fair |
| Empoli win | 9% | 9% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli −1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Atalanta BC −1.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.54 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Colombo · Empoli |
| 22' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · Atalanta BC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Sebastiano Esposito · Empoli |
| 64' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Empoli |
| 86' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 3126.00 | 174.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1958.26 | 1670.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.25 | -1.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | 0.65 |
| league points | 37.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 8.13 | 8.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | -0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 0.89 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 25.13 |
| state index | 1.79 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.63 |