← Serie A 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Feliciani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 75% | 76% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.77 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 8% | 9% | 12.21 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Atalanta BC −1.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 9' | ⚽ | Mateo Retegui · Atalanta BC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 16' | 🟨 | Domagoj Bradarić · Hellas Verona FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Amin Sarr · Hellas Verona FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mateo Retegui · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 3 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 3069.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 4.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1902.23 | 1632.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.21 | -36.46 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.19 | 25.68 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.06 | 1.16 |