← Serie A 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 52% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.67 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 21% | 25% | 4.75 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| ACF Fiorentina −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 60% | 1.89 | value: +13% |
| Under | 48% | 40% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Lucas Martínez Quarta · ACF Fiorentina |
| 17' | 🟨 | Edoardo Bove · ACF Fiorentina |
| 21' | ⚽ | Mateo Retegui · Atalanta BC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Isak Hien · Atalanta BC |
| 32' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · ACF Fiorentina |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta BC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Amir Richardson · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 3028.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1903.44 | 1778.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.76 | -28.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 15.76 | 13.85 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | -0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 27.40 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.22 |