← Serie A 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 39% | 31% | 2.53 | fair |
| SSC Napoli win | 34% | 40% | 2.94 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC +0 | 54% | 1.82 |
| SSC Napoli +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +6% |
| Under | 46% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Natan · SSC Napoli |
| 27' | 🟨 | Berat Djimsiti · Atalanta BC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · SSC Napoli |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 64' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Atalanta BC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Eljif Elmas · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 2733.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1820.87 | 1910.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.65 | -32.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 20.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 13.13 | 13.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.85 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.83 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.65 |