← Serie A 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 62% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.24 | value: +3% |
| Cremonese win | 15% | 18% | 6.50 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese +1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Atalanta BC +1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 64% | 1.86 | value: +18% |
| Under | 48% | 36% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Luka Lochoshvili · Cremonese |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 44' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Ciofani · Cremonese |
| 60' | 🟨 | Daniel Ciofani · Cremonese |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jérémie Boga · Atalanta BC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matteo Bianchetti · Cremonese |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cremonese | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini |
| coach days | 90.00 | 2495.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1506.44 | 1803.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.50 | -32.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 2.44 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 13.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.72 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.06 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -0.77 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 28.86 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.24 |