← Serie A 2022-23 · Fri, Mar 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Dionisi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 67% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 5.00 | value: +36% |
| Empoli win | 13% | 11% | 8.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Empoli −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Atalanta BC −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 37% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Tyronne Ebuehi · Empoli |
| 58' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Liam Henderson · Empoli |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Filippo Bandinelli · Empoli |
| 86' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matteo Ruggeri · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| coach days | 2480.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1734.97 | 1569.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.40 | -22.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.84 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.10 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 42.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.11 | 6.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.07 | — |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.05 |