← Serie A 2022-23 · Sun, Jan 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 72% | 67% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.53 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 10% | 17% | 10.15 | value: +70% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Salernitana −1.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 55% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 45% | 2.61 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jérémie Boga · Atalanta BC |
| 10' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Salernitana |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 23' | ⚽ | Giorgio Scalvini · Atalanta BC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Rasmus Højlund · Atalanta BC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Atalanta BC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia · Salernitana |
| 61' | ⚽ | Éderson · Atalanta BC |
| 85' |
| 5 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 13 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Nadir Zortea · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2419.00 | 348.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1817.71 | 1572.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.82 | -23.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 44.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.73 |
| league points | 31.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 7.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 28.18 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |