← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Apr 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 49% | 52% | 2.00 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 22% | 20% | 4.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Dalbert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 32' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Cagliari Calcio |
| 38' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nahuel Molina · Udinese Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | ⚽ | Beto · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟥 | Alberto Grassi · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 123.00 |
| 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1589.09 | 1522.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.97 | -9.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.72 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.32 | — |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |