← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 17, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Marchetti
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 38% | 41% | 2.52 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 33% | 29% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 57% | 1.97 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 13' | 🟨 | Andrea Carboni · Cagliari Calcio |
| 51' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 55' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Maya Yoshida · Sampdoria |
| 74' | ⚽ | Martín Cáceres · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Unipol Domus |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 46.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1592.54 | 1697.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.29 | 1.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 15.66 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 29.93 |
| state index | -0.83 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |