← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 7, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Giacomelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 44% | 41% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +7% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 27% | 29% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Diego Godín · Cagliari Calcio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Omar Colley · Sampdoria |
| 69' | 🟨 | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | ⚽ | Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria |
| 80' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 89' | 🟨 | Maya Yoshida · Sampdoria |
| 89' | 🟨 | Manolo Gabbiadini · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Radja Nainggolan · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 523.00 | 34.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1672.09 | 1605.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.55 | 7.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 3.89 | 3.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 29.67 | 27.90 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |