← Serie A 2020-21 · Wed, Jan 6, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: E. Abbattista
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benevento win | 37% | 33% | 2.61 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 35% | 39% | 2.81 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Benevento +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 44% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 56% | 2.40 | value: +35% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Caligara · Cagliari Calcio |
| 6' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Benevento |
| 20' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Marco Sau · Benevento |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alessandro Tuia · Benevento |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 84' | 🟥 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Benevento |
| 87' | 🟨 | Riccardo Improta · Benevento |
| 89' | 🟨 | Riccardo Sottil · Cagliari Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 158.00 | 585.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1543.25 | 1593.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.61 | 13.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 2.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |