← Serie A 2020-21 · Wed, Dec 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 67% | 69% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.12 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 13% | 14% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −1.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Cagliari Calcio −1.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 68% | 1.42 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 19' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 20' | 🟨 | Gabriele Zappa · Cagliari Calcio |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 37' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 59' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marash Kumbulla · AS Roma |
| 71' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 571.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1755.08 | 1557.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.58 | -6.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 25.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 3.11 | 3.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.62 | — |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |