← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Di Martino
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 42% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +6% |
| Crotone win | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crotone −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 49% | 1.86 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Crotone |
| 21' | ⚽ | Junior Messias · Crotone |
| 25' | ⚽ | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 31' | 🟨 | Răzvan Marin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 35' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Cagliari Calcio |
| 43' | ⚽ | Salvatore Molina · Crotone |
| 45' | ⚽ | Riccardo Sottil · Cagliari Calcio |
| 48' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Crotone |
| 48' | 🟥 | Luca Cigarini · Crotone |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lisandro Magallán · Crotone |
| 66' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 84' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 85.00 | 694.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1641.77 | 1554.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.27 | -37.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 7.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.60 | 28.74 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |