← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 44% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 48% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 52% | 2.13 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Vanja Milinković-Savić · Torino FC |
| 4' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 12' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 19' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Cagliari Calcio |
| 31' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · Cagliari Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Federico Bonazzoli · Torino FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 89' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1628.10 | 1630.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.60 | 7.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 22.00 | 14.10 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 24.49 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |