← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Oct 4, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Pasqua
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 75% | 72% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +32% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 9% | 7% | 10.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Atalanta BC −1.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 65% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 35% | 3.45 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 14 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand