← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Jun 27, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 39% | 42% | 2.52 | value: +7% |
| Torino FC win | 31% | 29% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Torino FC −0.25 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 59% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 17' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Cagliari Calcio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Federico Mattiello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 46' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · Cagliari Calcio |
| 60' | ⚽ | Bremer · Torino FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Andrea Carboni · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟥 | — · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days | 727.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1552.98 | 1583.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.08 | -26.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.13 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |