← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Mar 1, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 44% | 46% | 2.23 | value: +4% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 29% | 28% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 29' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · AS Roma |
| 34' | 🟨 | Cengiz Ünder · AS Roma |
| 35' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 41' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · AS Roma |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Villar · AS Roma |
| 64' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AS Roma |
| 69' | 🟨 | Giovanni Simeone · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | ⚽ | Gastón Pereiro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · AS Roma |
| 80' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 14 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 🟨 |
| Luca Pellegrini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 81' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · AS Roma |
| 89' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniele Ragatzu · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Santon · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pau López · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 609.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 4.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1559.01 | 1722.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.76 | -4.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.96 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |