← Serie A 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 44% | 38% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 27% | 33% | 3.60 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 39' | ⚽ | Rodrigo De Paul · Udinese Calcio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · Cagliari Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Udinese Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sebastien De Maio · Udinese Calcio |
| 84' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 85' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ragnar Klavan · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 538.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.34 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1615.65 | 1697.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.13 | 11.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| league points | 15.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.08 | — |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |