← Serie A 2019-20 · Mon, Nov 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Mariani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 44% | 44% | 2.21 | fair |
| US Lecce win | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| US Lecce +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 50% | 2.22 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · Cagliari Calcio |
| 67' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · Cagliari Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jacopo Petriccione · US Lecce |
| 81' | 🟥 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Cagliari Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Gianluca Lapadula · US Lecce |
| 85' | 🟥 | Robin Olsen · Cagliari Calcio |
| 86' | 🟥 | Gianluca Lapadula · US Lecce |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco Calderoni · US Lecce |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Lecce | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Via del Mare |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · US Lecce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 815.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1536.50 | 1605.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.39 | 65.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 10.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |