← Serie A 2019-20 · Sun, Nov 10, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. La Penna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 37% | 47% | 2.61 | value: +22% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 34% | 27% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cagliari Calcio +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.77 | value: +4% |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Marko Rog · Cagliari Calcio |
| 17' | ⚽ | Marko Rog · Cagliari Calcio |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gaetano Castrovilli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 26' | ⚽ | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Cagliari Calcio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 54' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · Cagliari Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 77' | 🟨 | Riccardo Sottil · ACF Fiorentina |
| 87' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 497.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1590.82 | 1601.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 56.63 | 2.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.39 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |