← Serie A 2019-20 · Wed, Oct 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Sacchi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 37% | 28% | 2.64 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 35% | 48% | 2.82 | value: +36% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 44% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 56% | 2.15 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Santander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Riccardo Orsolini · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 48' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 49' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Cagliari Calcio |
| 83' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Pellegrini · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Paolo Faragò · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Robin Olsen · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 486.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1652.02 | 1663.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.74 | -2.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 27.68 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |