← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 51% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.44 | fair |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 21% | 26% | 4.63 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | 🟥 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Frosinone Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 293.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1523.10 | 1486.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.93 | -1.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 37.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |