← Serie A 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 56% | 66% | 1.74 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.48 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 16% | 13% | 6.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Moise Kean · Juventus FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Charalampos Lykogiannis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Darijo Srna · Cagliari Calcio |
| 85' | ⚽ | Moise Kean · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| coach days |
| 275.00 |
| 1736.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1511.60 | 1950.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.71 | -14.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| league points | 33.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.34 |
| state index | 0.29 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |