← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rosario Abisso, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 37% | 32% | 2.61 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 31% | 42% | 3.13 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 22' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 33' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 43' | ⚽ | Artur Ioniță · Cagliari Calcio |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 52' | 🟥 | Fabio Depaoli · Chievo |
| 54' | 🟨 | Paolo Faragò · Cagliari Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mehdi Léris · Chievo |
| 63' | 🟨 | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Chievo |
| 72' | 🟨 | Alberto Cerri · Cagliari Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Emanuele Giaccherini · Chievo |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luca Cigarini · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days |
| 148.00 |
| 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1431.36 | 1494.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.85 | 18.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.87 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |