← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 41% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 30% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 257.00 | 652.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1582.10 | 1750.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.77 | 4.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.50 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.74 |
| league points | 27.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 25.61 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |