← Serie A 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 55% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 18% | 17% | 5.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 243.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1581.45 | 1839.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.86 | 20.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 24.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 27.88 |
| state index | -0.33 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |