← Serie A 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lorenzo Manganelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 48% | 51% | 2.03 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.41 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 23% | 26% | 4.15 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Sardegna Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 230.00 | 807.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -7.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1577.42 | 1620.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.00 | -7.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.95 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 29.74 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |